DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/14 10:59
Corn Down, Soybeans Up Midday Friday
Corn is 12 to 14 cents lower with new crop 1 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are
12 to 15 cents higher with new crop 12 to 15 cents higher and wheat 2 to 5
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 300 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.36 lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer
with crude up $1.20. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are
mostly higher with $14.50 higher.
Corn trade is 12 to 14 cents lower on the front month, with new crop 1 to 2
cents lower and spread trade cracking sharply during the day session with early
gains easily evaporating. Ethanol margins remain fairly stable and should get a
boost from the corn pullback, with energy holding the upper end of the range.
Weather looks to warm up with better moisture for many areas. Brazil continues
to struggle with dryness during pollination with crop estimates still falling,
but time is running out to change the crop size much in either direction. Corn
basis is holding firm throughout the belt with barge delays getting resolved.
China purchased more new-crop corn Friday, booking another 1.36 million metric
tons. On the July contract, chart resistance is the 20-day at $6.67, with
support the fresh low at $6.48.
Soybeans are 12 to 15 cents higher on the front months and 12 to 15 cents
higher on new crop with trade fading from the overnight highs and well off the
midday lows from Thursday. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher and oil 1.70 cents to
1.80 cents points higher. Planters will continue to roll short term with some
areas of rain slowing action and warmer temps to boost emergence. South America
should continue to see shipping progress short term, while domestic crush will
carry U.S. basis. On the July soybean chart, support is the 20-day at $15.40,
with resistance the fresh high at $16.67 1/2.
Wheat trade is 4 to 8 cents higher at midday with broad buying early on and
later pressure spilling over from the row crops along with the dollar rally
relaxing. KC is at 46-cent discount to Chicago with Minneapolis now 37 cents
above Chicago with intramonth spreads mixed. Seasonal weather on the Plains
should boost growth and dry concerns for spring wheat staying in place with
some pockets of relief in recent days. Other Northern Hemisphere weather will
continue to be watched as well with little fresh news on the front. KC July on
the chart has remains below the 20-day at $6.88 with the lower Bollinger Band
below that at $6.26.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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