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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/19 11:03

   Double-Digit Gains Midday Monday for Soybeans

   Corn is 3 to 4 cents higher, soybeans are 12 to 13 cents higher and wheat is 
flat to 3 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow off 175 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 0.45 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with 
crude up $0.15. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are 
mostly lower with gold down $6.30.


   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade finding buying and 
new highs on new crop, while the up-front action fades from the highs. Ethanol 
margins should remain stable with the energy complex holding the rally to 
offset corn values, with driving demand likely to hold improvements as well. 
Corn basis in holding firm throughout the belt. Brazil cash values remain 
elevated amid mixed weather for the double-crop corn with a concerning forecast 
into next week. Weekly export inspections were a bit disappointing at 1.525 
million metric tons, and planting expected just behind normal pace with the 
cooler weather for most. On the May contract, chart resistance is the contract 
high at $6.01 1/2, with the upper Bollinger Band at $5.96 now just above the 
market, then the 20-day at $5.65 as support.


   Soybeans are 12 to 13 cents higher at midday with trade back to the upper 
end of the range, and stronger spread action and meal supporting trade Monday 
morning as harvest is hitting the homestretch in South America. Meal is $4.50 
to $5.50 higher and oil 0.25 cent to 0.35 cent lower. South America is expected 
to continue harvest progress in Brazil with little overall weather change short 
term and Argentina looking stable short term. Cool weather will limit early 
planters in the U.S. with only a small start expected on the weekly report with 
export inspections maintaining the seasonal pace at 183,986 metric tons. The 
May soybean chart has support at the 20-day at $14.011 with the upper Bollinger 
Band at $14.49, which we are about a nickel away from.


   Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents higher at midday with cold air heading to 
much of Kansas this week, but with better moisture coverage in recent days. The 
downtrend in the dollar is supportive to buying as well with another washout 
lower this morning. Weather in the Plains looks to be warmer and drier after 
the next few days. KC has narrowed back to a 43-cent discount to Chicago with 
Minneapolis 10 cents above Chicago. Weekly export inspections were strong at 
613,595 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is showing steady conditions and 
heading around average. KC May on the chart has support at the 20-day at $5.79, 
with $6.11 the upper Bollinger Band that we are just above at midday.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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