DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/11 10:51
Corn and Wheat Lower, Beans Higher at Midday Monday
Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents lower; beans are 19 to 21 cents higher and wheat
trade is 15 to 27 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the S&P 3 points higher. The dollar
index is 24 points higher. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are
weaker with crude off .40 and natural gas off .27. Livestock trade is mixed.
Precious metals are weaker with gold off $17.
Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents lower with flat spread action as trade fades back
through nearby support with negative spillover from wheat and little other
fresh news to move trade. On the report Friday, trade saw carryout at 2.131
billion bushels vs. 2.156 last month with Brazil and Argentina production
unchanged along with world stocks edging .2 higher to 315.2 million metric tons
(mmt). Ethanol margins look to remain range-bound to start the week with
driving demand remaining soft. Basis should remain steady short term.
The daily wire will be watched for further buying with nothing today with
weekly inspections off a little bit this week at 711,733 metric tons (mt).
South American weather will be watched for coverage into the second part of the
month. On the March chart, the 20-day at $4.85 is nearby support which is where
we faded back through at midday with the Lower Bollinger Band at $4.74 the next
Soybean trade is 19 to 21 cents higher at midday with broad product strength
as trade adds a little weather premium back in coming out of the weekend while
we wait for further moisture developments. Meal is 5.50 to 6.50 higher and oil
is 80 to 90 points higher. On the WASDE report Friday, trade saw domestic
carryout unchanged at 245 million bushels with Brazil production falling
slightly and Argentina unchanged with world stocks .3 mmt lower to 114.2.
The daily wire is expected to remain somewhat active despite no sales today
with weekly inspections softer at 984,410 mt. The South American weather
pattern appears a touch drier coming out of the weekend. The January soybean
chart has resistance at the 20-day at $13.41, with the lower Bollinger Band at
$12.83 as support.
Wheat trade is 15 to 27 cents lower at midday with trade backing off the
upper end of the range with long liquidation continuing as U.S. values have
pushed ahead of world values for the moment. On the WASDE report, trade
carryout was 659 million bushels vs. 684 million last month, with world stocks
down .5 mmt to 258.2 mmt.
The Plains should see slightly warmer and drier temps through the middle of
the month. World weather has shown little change in recent days with little
concern in the Northern Hemisphere for now. Matif wheat is fading as well with
the dollar in the middle of the recent range. Weekly export inspections were
soft at 281,697 mt. On the KC March Chart, support is at the 20-day moving
average at $6.39 which we are just below at midday with the Upper Bollinger
Band at $6.77 as resistance that we tested earlier in the week.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @davidfiala.
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