DTN Midday Livestock Comments          10/21 11:49

   Cattle Trade Remains Cautious While Hogs Charge Onward 

   The livestock complex is off to another mixed week as the cattle contracts 
are trading lower as they wait to see what develops fundamentally from the fed 
cash cattle market, but the lean hog market is trading fully higher. 

Rick Kment
DTN Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex is currently trading mixed as the lean hog market 
trades confidently into the day's noon hour with the help of stronger pork 
cutout values and cash prices, but the cattle complex isn't as confident as the 
cash market waits to trade until later in the week. December corn is up 5 1/2 
cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.20. The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average is down 325.89 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle complex is off to a cautious start this week as traders know 
the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released later this week and if 
fundamental support isn't strong from both cash prices and consumer demand in 
the form of steady/higher boxed beef prices, the futures complex could drift 
lower, especially as traders fear that the market is overbought. October live 
cattle are down $0.80 at $186.82, December live cattle are down $0.65 at 
$186.67, and February live cattle are down $0.57 at $187.55.

   Last week the bulk of the fed cash cattle trade took place on Thursday as 
Southern live cattle traded for mostly $188, which was $1.00 higher than the 
previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly 
$296, which was steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's 
negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 78,941 head; of that 77% (60,495 head) 
were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 23% (18,446 head) 
were committed to the deferred delivery.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.42 ($322.07) and select up $1.67 
($295.87) with a movement of 40 loads (21.74 loads of choice, 11.24 loads of 
select, zero loads of trim and 7.39 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   As the live cattle complex trades slightly slow, the feeder cattle market is 
also hesitant to run too aggressively into the early part of the week before 
seeing what develops fundamentally. The monthly Cattle on Feed report will be 
released Friday, which could affect the futures complex this week as traders 
are normally more cautious ahead of seeing that data. November feeders are down 
$0.97 at $246.62, January feeders are down $1.20 at $244.30 and March feeders 
are down $1.10 at $243.67.

LEAN HOGS:

   With both pork cutout values and midday cash prices higher, the lean hog 
complex is rallying into the day's noon hour as fundamental support early in 
the week has been substantial. December lean hogs are up $0.12 at $77.95, 
February lean hogs are up $0.20 at $82.05 and April lean hogs are up $0.17 at 
$85.80. The market is currently trading at a price point it hasn't traded at 
since last April, which means traders are going to need to see steady 
fundamental support this week if prices are going to be maintained at these 
levels.

   The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 10/18/2024 is up $0.27 at $84.23, and 
the actual index for 10/17/2024 is up $0.11 at $83.96. Hog prices are higher on 
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.54 with a weighted average price of 
$74.57, ranging from $70.00 to $77.00 on 206 head and a five-day rolling 
average of $76.45. Pork cutouts total 121.91 loads with 105.70 loads of pork 
cuts and 16.21 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.75, $98.34.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com

    

    




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